In order to make educated decisions about programming and focus of intervention efforts, estimates regarding the prevention needs of Marion county youth must be assimilated and analyzed. Such estimates would indicate not only the children currently receiving services but also the children whose early childhood experiences put them at greater risk for needing services later in life. Because many such risk factors and experiences do not manifest themselves until later in life, and because these risk factors are not always visible to service providers until they are acute, systemic prevention programs and early intervention for children with high risk indicators can be challenging to implement. The effects of such efforts, however, have been proven effective and, we believe, is the best hope for solving some of the downstream effects which continue to challenge our county.

Because estimates of risk at very early stages of childhood development are rare and differ significantly from community to community, we have here provided preliminary draft estimates regarding the number of children and youth in each age category that may be at elevated risk for juvenile delinquency and other unfavorable behaviors, based on local community data.